Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.005129 0.005416 0.005711 0.006039 0.006393 0.006764 0.007184
2024-12-15 0.004620 0.005044 0.005501 0.006033 0.006638 0.007307 0.008107
2024-12-22 0.004273 0.004768 0.005319 0.005982 0.006763 0.007660 0.008780
2024-12-29 0.003970 0.004505 0.005114 0.005866 0.006776 0.007854 0.009245
2025-01-05 0.003735 0.004297 0.004950 0.005773 0.006793 0.008036 0.009688
2025-01-12 0.003588 0.004181 0.004883 0.005784 0.006928 0.008356 0.010313
2025-01-19 0.003349 0.003939 0.004646 0.005569 0.006760 0.008276 0.010400
2025-01-26 0.003248 0.003860 0.004604 0.005591 0.006890 0.008581 0.011011
2025-02-02 0.003218 0.003866 0.004666 0.005747 0.007199 0.009134 0.011996
2025-02-09 0.003092 0.003744 0.004559 0.005672 0.007193 0.009256 0.012375
2025-02-16 0.002999 0.003660 0.004494 0.005651 0.007255 0.009470 0.012897
2025-02-23 0.002901 0.003565 0.004412 0.005600 0.007270 0.009617 0.013322
2025-03-02 0.002862 0.003548 0.004433 0.005693 0.007496 0.010083 0.014279
2025-03-09 0.002788 0.003480 0.004384 0.005686 0.007579 0.010344 0.014933
2025-03-16 0.002703 0.003397 0.004310 0.005639 0.007598 0.010507 0.015440
2025-03-23 0.002603 0.003288 0.004197 0.005532 0.007521 0.010517 0.015690
2025-03-30 0.002517 0.003195 0.004101 0.005446 0.007472 0.010565 0.016002
2025-04-06 0.002468 0.003151 0.004074 0.005456 0.007567 0.010844 0.016735
2025-04-13 0.002352 0.003013 0.003908 0.005258 0.007332 0.010579 0.016483
2025-04-20 0.002313 0.002980 0.003891 0.005278 0.007437 0.010873 0.017256
2025-04-27 0.002316 0.003004 0.003956 0.005422 0.007744 0.011515 0.018726
2025-05-04 0.002253 0.002934 0.003882 0.005353 0.007705 0.011573 0.019092
2025-05-11 0.002207 0.002888 0.003841 0.005334 0.007744 0.011764 0.019733